The Evolution of the Republican Party on Climate Change
Throughout much of the 21st Century, the Republican Party has taken a skeptical stance towards the scientific accuracy of climate change and shown hostility towards suggested measures to combat it. During his presidency, Republican George W. Bush withdrew the United States from the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement designed to help stop global warming. In his explanation of his choice, President Bush cited the negative impacts that the agreement could have on the American economy and argued that the science had not pinpointed the extent to which the climate would actually change. President Trump’s policies and beliefs followed this example closely. He has called climate change a “hoax” and in 2017, he announced American withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords, another international agreement meant to curb the carbon emissions that cause climate change. However, there are signs that the Republican Party is changing with regards to this issue. In June, Republicans announced the creation of a climate caucus meant to craft conservative policies to address the issue of man-made climate change. The significant change of opinion on this problem stems from the growth of support for action on climate change in American voters, changing attitudes of young people within the Republican Party about climate change, and the availability of business-friendly technologies and policies for a green economy.
Put simply, leaders of the Republican Party are coming to accept the scientific reality of climate change partially because the rest of the country is. According to Pew, in 2009 only 30% of Americans believed that dealing with climate change should be a priority of the federal government whereas 52% of Americans believe it should be in 2020. In addition,by 2019 62% of Americans had noticed some kind of impact of climate change in their local communities. This shift in national attitude has been reflected by outbursts in activism around climate change. Groups such as the Sunrise Movement and Fridays for the Future have led demonstrations in major cities around the United States, garnering support from popular politicians such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Hollywood celebrities like Jane Fonda. Republicans who have shown willingness to address climate change have directly referenced this groundswell of grassroots activism as justification for doing so. For example, Peter Meijer, one of the founding members of the Republican Climate Caucus, noted that continuing to ignore climate change would hurt the national reputation of the Party.
Perhaps an even more important factor in the Republican Party’s shift on climate change policy has been the opinion of younger Republicans. According to Pew Research, 29% of millennial and Gen Z Republicans believe that climate change is caused by mankind while only 16% of Boomer and older Republicans do. This wing of the Republican Party is becoming increasingly vocal. In 2017, millennial Republicans created the American Conservation Coalition, an organization focused on supporting policies to curb global warming that are consistent with limited government philosophies. In addition, chapters of college Republicans across the US are starting to openly embrace the idea of climate change. Recently, 25 current and former College Republican chairs formed a group called Young Conservatives for Carbon Dividends to try and force a greater reaction from the national Republican Party on the issue of climate change. Even younger Republicans in Congress are starting to take action on the issue. Matt Gaetz, a 36-year-old Representative from Florida, has publicly acknowledged the existence of man-made climate change since he took office. With more and more millennials and Gen Zs becoming voters, the Republican Party will have to tailor its message if it hopes to remain competitive. Republican Representative Francis Rooney voiced such sentiment in 2019 when he criticized his fellow Republicans for not taking climate change seriously, warning in a letter “If we don’t change our party’s position soon, our voters will punish us.”
Congressional Republicans also feel emboldened to act on climate change because of the emergence of new technologies and policies that they believe can reduce carbon emissions without overburdening the economy. Utah Representative John Curtis, one of the leaders of the new Republican Climate Caucus, specifically outlined the use of new technologies to reduce carbon emissions as a key part of policies that they will promote. New think tanks led by long-time conservatives are also creating momentum for more right-wing policies to combat climate change by creating new research that backs up the efficacy of these kinds of solutions. In 2015, former conservative climate change denier Jerry Taylor founded the Niskanen Center, a think tank which he has used as a platform to argue for the compatibility of climate change policies with free-market principles. In 2017, former Republican Secretaries of State James Baker and George Schultz helped launch the Climate Leadership Council, which promotes solutions to climate change. While the organization does support bipartisanship to accomplish its goals, the business-friendly nature of the organization is apparent in its touting of the support of large corporations such as Ford.
The Republican Party’s stance on climate change is clearly undergoing a transition based on factors within and without. Despite the years of hostility to the environmentalist movement against climate change, leaders within the Party are recognizing that cutting carbon emissions can be done according to conservative values and is popular amongst their base and the population at large. While this change is significant, its backers will likely still have to contend with opposition to the climate deniers in the Party, including major Republican leaders such as Senator Ron Johnson. In addition, some liberal leaders have attacked the conservative approaches to climate change as ineffective and really only designed to promote private industries. It is possible that the next debate over climate change may not be whether it is real, but how best to combat it.
